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Starting Hand Values (Part 2)

One event that should slow you down, besides someone re-raising you indicating 2 pair or a set is when the board pairs on the flop. The more opponents seeing the flop the more likely someone hit trips. This is another reason to not let people draw against you when you hold a big pocket pair pre-flop, don't slow play a big PP with the intent of making money because more people are in the pot.

AKs are a whole different monster than the 3 wired pairs. It could win just by being the most powerful ace because of the king kicker. Usually it needs some help on the draw. Since it is suited it can win by a flush but this only increases its win potential 3%, it is a connector so it can win as a straight and it can win as an over-pair if an ace or king hits.

If a king hits you can feel safe that you have top pair with the best kicker. Same type of thinking if an ace is drawn, you have the best kicker to beat anyone else's ace. Someone could chase the two pair so if an ace or king flops you want to be aggressive. Some flops can get tricky with AK though.

If the flop comes K 10 5 or A Q 7 you may have been outdrawn. Why? Because K 10 and especially A Q are hands that people will call big opening raises with (K 10 being a loose call). Someone may have flopped 2 pair. If there was a raise before your raise and they called your raise then you should consider that person having the A Q or a wire pair. You need to be careful and feel out the board with a bet. If someone raise's back into you then it is decision time. Some things to consider are, that someone is drawing to a straight instead of having a made hand and betting that the flop missed others and they are trying to win the pot right there, or that someone has a K Q and thinks their K kicker is best.

Once again, MOST times you still have the better of the flop and should continue to believe that thought unless someone gets very aggressive. Then you have to ask yourself; does this player usually play very loose. If he is a tight player then you are beat, but if this person is loose and chases most of the time, take his money betting top pair with a worse kicker.

S klansky has an excellent section in his Advanced Hold'em poker book that categorizes all the starting hand into hand groups. JJ is considered a group 1 hand and in his opinion should be treated like the previous pages starting hands but this book mainly deals with large stakes limit poker. I believe that it should be treated with much more care so I put it into this group.

According to Carson in the Complete Book of Hold'em Poker JJ, AQs and TT are dominating hands that can a person can open with under the gun and even call a raise with in middle position.

KQs, AJs, KJs, and AK are hands that can be dominated. Any hand from the previous web page can easily beat these hands if the flop does not fit your hand perfectly. Going on over-card draws when there are rags on the board and a big bet to your right is very risky and usually means the blinds hit or someone already has a wired pair.

AQs is considered dominating if not against the hands from the first table. Consider the following numbers when AQs is up against a more powerful hand.

 

You are always in need of a miracle draw against these hands. That is the problem with most of these starting hands. They are good to open with in many positions and even throw in a raise to try and narrow the field in later positions. You have plenty of equity if, for instance, you try to steal the blinds with a raise and they call you or even re-raise you. Just be careful after the flop. If nothing came close to hitting your cards, depending on how many players stayed in the pot, you should not continue calling large bets with an over card draw.

JJ or TT (and 99) are excellent shorthanded hands. Most people will raise and even re-raise with the large over-card suited connectors. If the flop throws out rags or even just one over-card your hand can still be very strong since the flop defines over 70% of what the end results are going to be. If you bet the pot or half the pot then anyone calling with just an over-pair is calling against the odds. If you decided to limp in because there were callers ahead of you and too many people behind you, you are really looking to flop a set.

JJ vs. AQs with a flop of K86 rainbow is a 71.616 % to 28.384 % favorite.

AK off-suit or big slick is a dangerous starting hand but one I see many people put far more equity into with their pre-flop betting. It usually needs help in the draw. If you have AK suited you have the extra help of getting a flush draw (3% increase) but AK unsuited can get you in trouble. AK unsuited against a wired pair is a coin flip with the wired pair already having an edge. Don't bet the farm on AK pre-flop but feel very comfortable if an Ace or King falls on the flop. You will always have the best kicker and might have beat a smaller pocket pair. You once again want to isolate one player and two at the most. If you know your raise will not knock people out then you will essentially be betting for value with a raise.

Here are some other considerations to look at before throwing your money around. All examples are for a ten player table;

If you hold KK the chances someone has AA are 19.5 to 1.

If you hold QQ the chances someone holds AA or KK are 9.5 to 1.

If you hold AKos the chances someone holds AA or KK are 19.7 to 1.

If you hold JJ the chances someone holds AA, KK, QQ are 6.2 to 1.

If you hold TT the chances someone has a better pocket pair are 4.5 to 1.

If you hold AQos the chances someone has a better pocket pair are 4.4 to 1.

If you hold 99 the chances someone has a better pocket pair are 3.5 to 1.

If you hold KQos the chances someone has a TT and above are 2.7 to 1

Look at the next chapter to see the win expectations for each hand compared to how many players are involved. Most pocket pairs increase in value when they are up against less players. All big cards increase in value but with pocket pairs from tens and above a raise is considered good. Then again nothing is set in stone when you consider a poker game. You must know your opponents and this is one of the x-factors.

The list that follows helps you understand the winning percentage for the major starting hands according to the number of players seeing the flop.